Proposed changes to Household Projections for England

Closed 13 Mar 2017

Opened 31 Jan 2017

Feedback Updated 30 Jun 2017

We Asked

We asked for your views on proposed changes to the household projections methodology.

We hoped that the results of this consultation would help us to produce household projections based on an improved, simplified methodology that continues to meet your needs.

You Said

We received 42 responses to the consultation. The main feedback was:

  • Some users were concerned about the proposal to project the household representative rates using only the 2001 and 2011 Census points and asked ONS to consider and report on alternative options.
  • Some issues surrounding other aspects of the methodology were raised including concern about the proposal for removing gender and marital status from the projection model and the age groups currently used in the model.
  • Variant household projections at local authority level were requested and household projections at the level of detail previously published by DCLG.
  • There was an interest in what household types would be available in the outputs.   

We Did

We intend to:
 
  • Move to using the standard 2011 Census definition for Household Reference Person as soon as possible.
  • Set up a programme of research to look at how the methodology can be improved in the light of the feedback from this consultation.
  • Establish a Household Projections Collaborative Group, including experts from within and outside ONS, to advise and work with us on this research and the longer-term development of the household projections.
  • Use the current methods as a starting point for the next release of the projections in summer 2018. The programme of research, and the Collaborative Group, will help us to identify improvements to the methods that we could make in time for that release.
  • Retain the current level of detail in published outputs and seek further evidence of requirements for variant projections.

 

Results Updated 30 Jun 2017

Files:

Overview

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is now responsible for producing household projections. These were previously produced by the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG). The household projections are used as part of the assessment of future housing need and demand. Local authorities also use the household projections to assess service provision and provide context for planning decisions. 

We hope this transfer of responsibility will improve the consistency between the household projections and the national and subnational population projections and allow us to make some efficiencies in their production.

Following this move we are proposing some changes to the way these statistics are compiled.

 

Why We Are Consulting

We would like your views on the proposed changes to the household projections methodology and to improve our understanding of what you need from the household projections. We hope that the results of this consultation will help us to produce household projections based on an improved, simplified methodology that continues to meet your needs. Everyone is welcome to respond.

Audiences

  • Businesses
  • Government
  • Local government
  • Police
  • Policy managers
  • Politicians
  • Researchers
  • Statisticians
  • Think tanks

Interests

  • Population
  • Statistics
  • Data