Help shape our published content for population estimates

As part of our ambition for admin-based population estimates (ABPEs) to become the official estimates of the population for England and Wales, we are reviewing the content we publish for population estimates.  

Currently for official population estimates we publish:  

• Statistical bulletins 

• Datasets 

• Population analysis tools 

• Methods guides 

We undertook user engagement exercises to gain a better understanding of how our content is used. Feedback from users plays an essential role in improving our statistics.  

In February 2025, we held a webinar Shaping our published content for population estimates, which you can watch our recording of. During the webinar, attendees were invited to provide feedback using a Microsoft Forms survey. The same questions were then used to gather further feedback through this ONS consultation platform. Our summary of responses combines feedback from both engagement exercises.   

Across both engagement exercises we received a total of 60 responses. Of these, 21 were from our consultation platform and 39 from our webinar.   

Responses were received from a range of stakeholders, mostly from academia and the government sector, including local government, devolved administrations and public bodies. Feedback was also received from those representing charities, businesses and those responding in a personal capacity.   

The feedback has allowed us to gain a better understanding of user needs relating to the content we publish for population estimates. It highlighted:  

• respondents analyse individual country level data more than data for the UK as a whole; only 13% of respondents analysed subnational data exclusively 

• lower tier local authorities are the most used administrative geography followed by country, upper tier local authorities, regions, UK and then England and Wales combined    

• our datasets and custom datasets on Nomis are the most frequently used resources; the statistical bulletin, analysis tool and other content covering quality and methods are used less often   

• the most used data are population estimates by age and sex, and the total population size followed by annual population change and the more detailed components of population change; median age and population density are used less frequently while cohort analyses are used the least  

• within the statistical bulletin, respondents found the main points and commentary on local population change particularly useful; commentary on national, country and regional changes were less useful 

• most respondents analyse population estimates for a single area over time, ideally using a timeseries of more than 10 years 

• comparing population change across areas at the same geographical level is important, for example comparing different local authorities; comparisons with higher-level areas such as region or country are also valuable 

• population estimates for areas smaller than local authorities and alternative geographies are important; estimates for lower layer super output areas (LSOAs) and electoral wards are most used 

• future data visualisations, which could include graphs, charts, maps and infographics should primarily focus on the total population and age-sex structure of the population including change over time; visualisations covering the components of population change are also important 

Additional feedback from free text responses included:  

• the need for consistent machine-readable data formats 

• concern regarding the increasing number of unitary authorities merging into county-level authorities and the importance of population estimates for smaller areas    

• the need for clear information on what data is available within the different published datasets 

Our mid-year admin-based population estimates (ABPEs) are produced using statistical models which build on the current cohort component methods used to produce our official population estimates for many years. ABPEs use a wide and increasing range of data sources, and methods can accommodate missingness in some input data. We asked respondents for feedback on our published content which brings together important information about the ABPEs.    

• Nearly half (45%) of all respondents have used our Mid-year admin-based population estimates for England and Wales Quality and methodology report; of these 93% reported that it met their needs. 

• Over half (60%) of all respondents have used our Understanding admin-based population estimates article; of these 89% reported that it met their needs.  

The purpose of our engagement exercise was to gain a better understanding of user needs for the content we publish on population estimates. We want to ensure our releases meet these needs effectively.  

As part of our website transformation, we will be improving the dissemination of population estimates. We want to highlight key figures and headline facts more clearly, alongside contextual summaries. The launch blog on ONS Digital explains how we will be transforming our releases. 

For our mid-2024 population estimates we will continue to provide similar published content, but plan to:  

• refine commentary in our statistical bulletin, focusing on local-level change as this has the greatest value to users 

• provide the ability to compare areas within visualisations of population estimates  

• improve signposting to supporting information on quality and methods 

We are considering adding population estimates to our explore local statistics platform. This will help users find, compare and visualise changes in the size and age-sex structure of the population over time for local authorities and higher-level areas.  

We are exploring ways to help users understand reasons for population change in local areas. We aim to provide functionality within our outputs to allow users to compare and visualise components of population change, such as births, deaths and migration for their area.  

In summer 2025 we plan to publish a combined quality and methods guide explaining how we produce the admin-based population estimates (ABPEs), their strengths and limitations and further quality information. This will replace the quality and methodology information (QMI) and provide a full account of the methods used to produce the ABPEs. The official mid-year population estimates will continue to have a separate Mid-year population estimates QMI and Population estimates for England and Wales, methods guide.  

We aim for ABPEs to become the official estimates of the population in summer 2026. Our official mid-2024 population estimates are scheduled for publication on 30 July 2025 and will continue to use our traditional methods that we have used for many years. 

We would like to thank everyone who took part in these user engagement activities and provided us with valuable feedback that will guide improvements to our population estimates publications. 

If you have any further questions or would like to request additional information, then please email pop.info@ons.gov.uk.