Household projections: user engagement 2025

A change in the way that the household projections (HHPs) are used in some key policy areas prompted us to seek feedback from users on how they would use these projections in future. We also engaged with users to seek feedback on small methodological changes proposed for the next set of household projections. 

We undertook an engagement exercise on user needs from 2022-based household projections from 26 February 2025 to 7 May 2025, and held an online webinar on 30 April 2025.  

The engagement enabled us to gain valuable insights into user needs ahead of the publication of the household projections in 2025.  

We would like to thank all respondents for their valuable feedback which will continue to guide our work over the short- and long-term. Some user requests involve longer-term implementation and planning, which we may introduce in a phased approach over time, potentially as part of wider activities related to the transformation of population and migration statistics.  

The engagement exercise received 22 responses from a range of stakeholders. These consisted of:  

• 13 responses from local authorities in England  

• 7 responses from academia, charities and other research groups 

• 1 response from a government department   

• 1 response from an individual  

General 

The overall feedback on the planned use of the 2022-based HHPs for England showed that almost all respondents are supportive of the publication of HHPs given their broad application across planning and decision-making. Given the changes to the National Planning Policy Framework for England in 2024, direct use of the HHPs for policy-making and planning may be less widespread than was previously the case. The feedback demonstrated how HHPs support a wide range of uses, including but not limited to:  

• a variety of planning purposes and evaluating potential future demand on public services (including schools, public health services, fire and rescue services, public transport and local infrastructure) 

• supporting housing market and strategic housing land assessment, and expanding the evidence base for potential future housing needs 

• feeding into other government departments operational models and project streams 

• being used in producing housing led population forecasts 

Suggested changes or additions from users included but were not limited to:  

• an analytical bulletin with local authority-level insights and thematic analysis around different household types and community groups based on the urban or rural classification 

• clear messaging on the appropriate use of household projections through the bulletin and analysis of the accuracy of the previous projections, along with an article to describe changes being made to the methods and assumptions across all runs of projections 

• various articles that would expand on the quality of our underlying data and our assumption setting process, especially around the quality of our input date explicitly around headship rates derived from Census 2021.  

Concerns were expressed about the overall robustness of the 2022-based household projections outputs. Some users see these outputs as being indirectly impacted by Census 2021 being undertaken during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and considered that it was therefore not representative of the future usual resident population. 

A call for an interactive tool 

We also note user feedback on the benefits of having an interactive dashboard in which users could compare similar local authorities based on the urban or rural classification, demographic profiles, and one that presents them with historical HHPs alongside the latest proposed 2022-based HHPs. It is felt that this would allow comparisons of projections from the 2014-based HHPs (produced by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government) to the latest available projections from ONS. 

Outputs at the sub-local authority level 

Feedback included requests for:  

• HHPs on a wider range of geographies that includes, but is not limited to, outputs at ward, district, MSOA, and constituent level – this potential granularity of our outputs might provide users with better insights on the demographic change within their areas of interest   

• regional and national comparisons to understand how their respective areas sit within the context of the regional and national demographic trends 

• HHPs produced by local authority with corresponding urban and rural classification     

Scope of variants 

Users highlighted the need for ONS to produce the high migration variant projection and the low migration variant projection. These would be particularly useful, given the extent to which international migration flows can fluctuate over time, and migration potentially prompted by geopolitics and climate change.  

Users also noted that the high and low migration options are useful, particularly as there is likely to be higher migration in the more urban areas when compared to the rural districts in the county.  

Response to the proposed age grouping change 

The majority of users welcome the proposed shifting from the current age groupings 16 to 19 and 20 to 24 to 16 to 18 and 19 to 24 respectively. The new age groupings were regarded as representative of the recent demography change in relation to headship rates, and it allows for better separation of different economic-demographic cohorts, such as higher education students.  

Some users expressed their concern on the potential difficulty in comparing 2022-based HHPs with previous historical runs of projections due to different age group breakdowns. Another user highlighted that it would bring unequal age group size as it would be the only age group that does not correspond to equal quinary categorisation. Some users highlighted the need for data on single year of age for their modelling project streams. 

Assumption setting processes 

We acknowledge that users would like to see more information around our assumption setting processes for National Population Projections (NPPs) and Subnational Population Projections (SNPPs) and how those are incorporated into HHPs. To ensure that the assumption setting process is transparent and well-understood, we plan to continue to make a summary of the National Population Projections Expert Advisory Panel meeting minutes and membership available to users on request. This user feedback highlights the need for us to continue including information on the evidence to support the assumed future levels of migration, fertility, and mortality and to provide more information on our assumption setting. In this context it is important to recall the way in which NPPs feed into subnational population projections (SNPPs) and SNPPs feed into household projections (HHPs).   

Census 2021 headship rates 

Household headship rates show the proportion of people in a demographic group based on geography, age group, sex and household type who were the household representative person (HRP). We noted the user need to see more information on the quality of our input data explicitly around headship rates derived from the Census 2021 for England and Wales. The census is widely regarded as the most robust, reliable population-level source of household information. Users can find more information about the quality information on respondent error in Census 2021 in England and Wales to help users correctly interpret the census results in Census Quality Survey for Census 2021 in England and Wales. As part of the release, we will publish detailed and updated QMI reports, including information about the strengths and limitations of our projections and their underlying data, and guidance on their appropriate use.  

Age grouping 

We value the supportive feedback on the proposed changed to the age grouping, whilst acknowledge the need to provide rationale behind it. The change, which involves shifting from the current age groupings 16 to 19 and 20 to 24 to 16 to 18 and 19 to 24, would allow us to produce more accurate calculations of dependent child ratios needed for our HHP system, and it aims to be in alignment with the census definition of a dependent child. 

Lower geography outputs 

We acknowledge that users expressed their interest in seeing HHPs broken down by geographies lower than local authority level and broken down by urban and rural classification. Unfortunately, we are unable to produce HHPs on those lower geographies due to lack of availability of granular data. We completed a suite of work to explore the plausibility and quality of the potential projections’ outputs on sub-local authority level. It highlighted a risk around uncertainty around projected figures especially in more rural areas within the same local authority.  

Uncertainty in population projections increases the further they are made into the future and particularly so for smaller geographical areas and age-sex breakdowns. We concluded that overall volatility, and diminished quality of those outputs outweighs potentially meeting users' need. We will recommend ONS 2021 rural urban classification (RUC) for their onward use of household projections. It is important to note that the 2021 RUC classification is based on the form and density of the settlements within statistical geographies. It does not classify geographies or features which may contribute to a rural or urban identity, such as landscape, economic, social, historical, or cultural characteristics 

Interactive tool 

We acknowledge users’ need for an interactive tool where they are presented with historical HHPs alongside the latest 2022-based HHPs. This would enable users to see the scale of difference between rounds of projections and subsequent estimates. Unfortunately, incorporating a fully comprehensive interactive comparative tool within our standard release is currently out of scope. However, we recognise its potential value and will explore options for future development. In the meantime, users may find that the separately published data explorer within our standard release of detailed datasets might offer some limited yet similar functionality that could help meet this need.  

In producing 2022-based HHPs, we have been balancing improvements we want to make against other priorities. Many of the other user requests involve longer-term planning and implementation which we will look to introduce over time, and we will not be able to include them in the upcoming 2022-based household projections release. Following the release of the 2022-based HHPs, we will explore the potential development of an interactive HHPs explorer, and the potential to generate an alternative projection taking account of housing demand and supply within the local authority and its surrounding area. 

We also recognise users’ needs rely on our HHPs to support their own activities, often within fixed timelines, therefore we will continue our engagement with data suppliers and our users to explore the best timing for the future releases. We plan to communicate updates through our Population Statistics newsletter, which you can subscribe to on our website. The ONS release calendar contains the latest information on population projections releases and will be updated as we work towards the next releases.