User needs from 2022-based national, subnational and household projections

Overview

Population and household projections produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) serve a wide range of users across government and beyond. The primary purpose of projections is to provide information on potential future population and household numbers. These are used as a common framework for planning and policymaking. We produce national population projections for the UK and constituent countries, subnational population projections for England, and household projections for England. Wherever possible, we base these projections on the latest mid-year population estimates, together with assumptions of future levels of fertility, migration and mortality. For household projections these are based on household representative rates.   

Following the conclusion of Census 2021, we are now moving into a new cycle of projections releases using census data. The reconciliation and rebasing process was completed in 2023 and provides rebased estimates for the decade to mid-2021. These, along with final components of change, are available for us to use in the assumption-setting process for our projection outputs. 

We will soon start working on producing 2022-based national population projections (NPPs), subnational population projections (SNPPs) and household projections (HHPs). The next NPPs following National population projections: 2021-based interim have a provisional release date of October or November 2024, and the SNPPs and HHPs are scheduled to follow in 2025. For updates, please see the ONS release calendar or subscribe to our Population Statistics Newsletter. 

Why we are seeking your views 

To help us prepare for the set of 2022-based projections, we are inviting you to feed back on your output needs from the projections to understand what you would like to see in these releases, such as new variant projections or new datasets. We are conducting this engagement earlier in our production processes than in the past to enable enough time for us to consider and meet your needs. This engagement replaces separate engagements, which may have taken place in the past for each projection output and covers all planned 2022-based population and household projections outputs from ONS. This is the primary way for you to feed back to us on your output and variant projection needs ahead of us publishing our 2022-based projections. 

From June 2023 to October 2023, the ONS ran a consultation on the future of population and migration statistics in England and Wales which outlined the ONS’s proposals to create a sustainable system for producing essential, up-to-date statistics about the population. Responses to this consultation will inform a recommendation to Government from the UK Statistics Authority, on the advice of the National Statistician which will be published in 2024. This is a separate engagement exercise focussing on user needs for population projections. 

How to respond  

We welcome contributions from all users of population and household projections. This includes, but is not limited to:   

• government and government agencies  

• local authorities 

• research groups  

• integrated care systems 

• policy think tanks   

• charities  

• civil society organisations   

• academia 

• business and industry 

Accessibility  

If you prefer a different format, or you would like to discuss your feedback, please email projections@ons.gov.uk. 

Event 

We are holding an online event on 20 February 2024 at 2.30pm. This is an opportunity to further discuss the questions in the engagement questionnaire, our plans for 2022-based projections and for you to ask any questions you may have. Further details can be found at the bottom of this page, and you can register to attend on Eventbrite. 

Your contribution is very much welcomed. Thank you for taking part.