User needs from 2022-based national, subnational and household projections

Closes 12 Mar 2024

Introduction to projections and this engagement

Before asking for your output needs from our projections, this section outlines what each release provides and the areas on which we are seeking feedback. 

Projections outputs 

National population projections (UK and constituent countries) 

National population projections (NPPs) provide statistics on potential future population levels of the UK and its constituent countries. NPPs are broken down by age and sex and cover up to 100 years from the base year, although our statistical bulletins tend to focus on the first 25 years due to increasing uncertainty the further into the future that projections go. 

We produce three types of datasets. 

  • Components of change summary tables – contain the projected population by broad age group, components of change (births, deaths, migration) and summary statistics (including mean and median age) by sex and year.   
  • Population by 5-year age groups – contain population totals by five-year age group (up to age 100+) by sex and year. These show projected populations at mid-years by age last birthday in five-year age groups. 
  • Machine readable tables (Open XML datasets) – contain the underlying input data and projected population data by single year of age and sex. 

In addition to a principal projection, we also typically produce a number of variant projections to help users understand outcomes from a range of alternative scenarios concerning alternative potential future levels of mortality, fertility and migration. There is more information on variant projections in our 2018-based release and in our variant projections user guide

Statistical bulletins present our findings to users, and these are accompanied by datasets. The release also usually includes a quality and methodology document (QMI) and individual methodological articles covering assumptions used for mortality, fertility and migration.  

At the same time as launching this engagement (30 January 2024), we have released our latest set of national population projections which are the 2021-based interim national population projections. We recommend the use of these instead of the 2020-based interim national population projections: year ending June 2022 estimated international migration variant which were released in January 2023. Full details of our projections releases (all articles, datasets and bulletins) can be accessed from National population projections table of contents

Subnational population projections (England) 

Subnational population projections (SNPPs) provide statistics for England at local authority level by age and sex, and project 25 years into the future. SNPPs are widely used in planning, for example labour market, housing, health and education. 

In our SNPP release, we produce population projections for England for three geographies: regions, local authorities and clinical commissioning groups (now known as integrated care systems). For these geographies, we produce five standard tables which contain projections over a 25-year period by 5-year age groups and sex. We also produce seven ‘open data’ (‘Z’) datasets or tables which contain projections over a 25-year period for components of change (births, deaths and migration) by single year of age and sex.   

Alongside a principal projection, we have also produced a number of variant projections detailing outcomes of different scenarios of migration. 

The datasets accompany a statistical bulletin and related supporting documents on methodology and quality (QMI). We have also produced a user guide, Subnational population projections across the UK: a comparison of data sources and methods

The latest SNPPs are the 2018-based subnational population projections

Household projections (England) 

Household projections (HHPs) provide data on projected numbers of households and household population for England up to 25 years into the future. As with the SNPPs, these are produced at local authority level by age and sex. They are also used for planning in sectors such as housing and social care. 

These projections consist of several main datasets or tables which show projections of numbers of households as well as household population from 2001 to 25 years beyond the base year. They are produced for local authorities, counties and regions of England plus a country total. Detailed datasets are also available which show projections for household representative rates as well as headship rates by household type. They also show projected institutional population, numbers of households and household population by age and sex. In the 2018-based HPPs the household types projected were: 

  • one-person households: male 

  • one-person households: female 

  • households with one dependent child 

  • households with two dependent children 

  • households with three or more dependent children 

  • households with two or more unrelated adults 

Alongside a principal projection, we also produce a number of variant projections detailing different scenarios of migration and a variant projection using a projected household representative rate. These datasets accompany a statistical bulletin as well as related supporting documents on methodology and quality (QMI). We have also produced a user guide which compares household projections methodology in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland with our household projections. 

The latest HHPs are the 2018-based household projections

This engagement questionnaire

To clarify user needs for our upcoming projections releases in late 2024 to mid-2025, we are seeking feedback from users, particularly on the following areas. 

  • Do you need new datasets or information from the release? 

  • Are there additional variants that you would like and why? 

  • Are there particular areas you would like to see covered in 2022-based projections statistical bulletins?  

  • With our household projections, are there requirements for different household types? 

  • Are there other items which should be included, or which could be removed from our prospective releases? 

  • Do you have any feedback on the data and methodology used to develop projections? 

Within 12 weeks of the user engagement questionnaire closing, we will aim to provide respondents with a link to a summary of anonymised responses and a response to the findings on consultations.ons.gov.uk.